Which Equity Market Has Outperformed Since the Beginning of the Trade War? The US equity market is the winner the last two years. Most other major equity markets have experienced significant declines. Image: Fundstrat
“Real Fed Rates Are the Most Accurate Predictor of Future S&P 500 Volatility,” Says SocGen SocGen says it is the most accurate predictor of S&P 500’s volatility over the last 50 years. Should investors be nervous about rising real interest rates? Yes, higher real interest rates mean higher borrowing costs. Real Fed funds rate is…
When Is the Next Recession Coming? If history helps us to predict the future, a recession can occur when: Wage Growth minus Fed Funds Rate is below -1%. Why? Because the Fed is too tight at that moment. Since 1965, a recession has never occurred until Wage Growth minus Fed Funds Rate was below -1%…
Why the Fed Can’t Raise Interest Rates Above Inflation Rate, Today? The Federal Reserve can’t raise the Fed funds rate above the inflation rate because the US productivity growth is too weak.Net Domestic Investment to GDP is in a long-term downtrend and reduces productivity.This makes it difficult to see the Fed funds rate exceed the…
Why the Current Business Cycle Can Continue? Even if we are in a late business cycle, real Fed funds rate is near zero, the Fed remains “patient” at the moment and has little influence on the long end of the yield curve. The 30-Year Treasury Rate minus 10-Year Treasury Rate spread has a normal upward…
How’s the U.S. Economy Doing Now? The real GDP Nowcast relies on soft data such as consumer and business surveys and hard data such as retail sales and industrial production. It forecasts the growth of real GDP. At full employment, GDP returns to the level of potential GDP. If a recession were to occur today,…
‘We are entering into the later market cycle,’ says portfolio manager Mike Morey, CIO of Integrity Viking Funds, says why investors should be more risk averse at this point of the cycle. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g_vVdwtu6SM
Markets aren’t as bullish as people believe: Expert Thomas Lee, former J.P. Morgan chief U.S. equity strategist, is a Managing Partner and the Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors. He speaks about the current economic cycle and his view of the US stock market. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0S2tdAPaEDk
Where Joel Greenblatt sees value now Joel Greenblatt (Gotham Funds) is a legendary value investor. He talks about the market and the future of value investing with Leslie Picker on CNBC. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8Zuw8Mnc-I
Ellis: Index Revolution Charles D. Ellis is a great American investment consultant, known for his philosophy of passive investing. Through this discussion with Consuelo Mack and his book Winning the Loser’s Game, he explains why passive index funds are the best choice for most investors. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUpoK2ZOFWc