Search Results for: economic

Valuation and Global Asset Price Cycle Interesting chart showing the current average overvaluation estimates across equities, bonds and house prices in major advanced economies. Image: Oxford Economics

U.S. Misery Index (Unemployment Rate + Core Inflation) The misery index is an economic indicator, created by economist Arthur Okun. Because both inflation and unemployment are very low, the U.S. misery index (unemployment rate + core inflation) is approaching all-time low. That’s good news for Americans, because it brings stability to the life of the…

Share of Central Banks Cutting Rates More than 60% of the world’s central banks are easing, while the U.S. stock market is at an all-time high. Image: NBF Economics and Strategy

S&P 500 Capital Allocation – Dividends, Buybacks and Capital Expenditures 2018 corporate tax cut boosted dividends and buybacks, but not capital expenditures. Image: Oxford Economics

Probability of U.S. Recession in 12 Months Based on the Slope of the Yield Curve The yield curve slope suggests odds of a recession in the next 12 months at less than 30% in the U.S., and the continuation of economic expansion. Image: NBF Economics and Strategy

U.S. Business Cycle: Output Gap vs. Core PCE Inflation The mature phase of the U.S. business cycle began 24 months ago. The mature phase lasted 72 months in the late 1960s and 57 months in the late 1990s. Image: NBF Economics and Strategy

U.S. Business Cycle: Actual vs. Potential U.S. Real GDP The mature phase of the U.S. business cycle began 2 years ago. If inflation remains stable and the Fed avoids restrictive monetary policy, then the risk of recession is reduced. Image: NBF Economics and Strategy

U.S. Federal Budget Deficit by Month U.S. federal budget deficit surges to $134.5 billion in October. Image: Oxford Economics

Baseline Equity Returns (5 Years) Chart suggesting that high market valuations will affect equity returns in the coming years. Image: Oxford Economics

U.S. Real GDP and Productivity The U.S. economy is slowing down and productivity falls by most since 2015. Is the drop in productivity temporary? Image: Oxford Economics