U.S. Misery Index and Average Forward Returns The U.S. misery index (core inflation + unemployment) is approaching all-time low, because both inflation and unemployment are very low. Historically, average forward returns have been higher than the overall S&P 500 average.
Purchasing Power of the U.S. Dollar since 1913 How does inflation effect the purchasing power of money? $100 in 1913 would only be worth $3.87 in 2019. Image: howmuch.net
Demographics and U.S. 10-year Treasury Yield The trend in global savings has turned. The chart suggests that the dis-saving phase is likely to be inflationary. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
U.S. Core PCE vs. Fed Target The U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy, rises to 1.6% in June. Inflation trending back up toward the Fed’s 2% target is good news. You may also like “U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months.”
U.S. Population Growth vs. U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield U.S. demographics explain the 10-year Treasury bond yield, due to low inflation. The U.S. 10-year bond yield reflects inflation and growth expectations, and working age population growth contributes to inflation and GDP growth. Image: Paolo Cardena
U.S. Equity Market Performance since 1914 Excellent comparison between real (adjusted for inflation) and nominal returns on U.S. equities. Image: Saxo Bank
History of the Real Federal Minimum Wage Today, the real federal minimum wage is worth 31% less than in 1968. It is also the longest period without an increase (adjusted for inflation). You may also like “Wage Growth vs. U.S. Home Price Growth.” Image: Economic Policy Institute
Decomposing the U.S. 10-Year minus 3-Month Treasury Yield Spread since 2013 This great chart shows that the “Global Economic Data” variable has a significant impact on the U.S. 10-year minus 3-month Treasury yield spread since 2018. An R² of 0.902 means that more than 90 percent of the variance in the U.S. 10-year minus 3-month Treasury yield spread…
Do You Really Think That, By Buying the S&P 500, You Never Lose Money? Well, even if it is not adjusting for inflation with dividends, this chart is very interesting. That’s the reason why we develop stock market forecasting models. Image: Frank Jurs
“Ken Fisher: Thinking in Ways That Others Do Not, with John Tamny” Great interview of Ken Fisher on: coastal redwoods, dikes and climate change, efficient markets, quantitative easing (QE) vs. inflation, humans as a group are slow to learn, recessions, Fed and interest rates, why philanthropy is bad and immoral, and why inequality is a good…