Search Results for: economic cycle

U.S.: Market Odds of A Fourth Rate Cut The Fed may be inclined to press the pause button in the “mid-cycle” policy easing. Image: Oxford Economics

U.S. Yield Curve vs. Recessions The chart shows the 10-year Treasury yield minus Fed funds rate yield curve and recessions. Historically, a flat or inverted yield curve is associated with slow economic growth or recessions. The longer the yield curve stays inverted, the better it predicts recession. A Fed rate cut similar to 1995 could…

Second-half Recovery in Growth? Better economic data could extend the business cycle. Currently, G7 & BRIC leading indicators remain encouraging and suggest no imminent recession. Image: Richardson Wealth

Lower Returns for Stocks in the Next 12 Months? Morgan Stanley’s cyclical indicator is flagging “downturn.” The yield curve’s slope, debt issuance, consumer confidence, economic and financial markets data are aggregated in Morgan Stanley’s cyclical indicator. The entry into the “downturn” phase suggests lower returns for stocks and risky assets in the next 12 months. Image:…