Effective Fed Funds Rate and S&P 500 Index Return vs. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Bond Return Is 2024 poised to be the year for bonds, given that the median relative performance spread between stocks and bonds in previous Fed cutting cycles has been 25%? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Cumulative Flows into U.S. Equity Funds U.S. active equity funds face outflows as investors increasingly favor U.S. passive equity funds due to lower fees, potential tax advantages, and skepticism towards active fund managers’ ability to consistently beat the market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Fed Funds Rate vs. U.S. Job Openings (JOLTS) Declining wage growth and employment would allow the Fed to make substantial cuts in interest rates. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
S&P 500 Stocks and Non-S&P 500 Stocks as a % of U.S. Large Cap Funds AUM Despite the abundance of stocks, the lack of interest in investing beyond the “Magnificent Seven” creates bias, leading to excessive attention and favoritism that may undervalue or neglect other investment opportunities. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Fed Funds Target Rate Goldman Sachs predicts that by the end of 2024, the federal funds rate will reach 5.1%, which differs significantly from the expectations of the futures market.. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Index Valuation vs. Fed Funds Rate Given that much of the stock market’s progress this year can be attributed to valuation expansion, it is likely that U.S. stocks will eventually experience a correction to adjust to the impact of higher interest rates. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Dollar Exposure of Currency Hedge Funds Will hedge funds turn bullish on the U.S. dollar? Image: J.P. Morgan
Cumulative Flows from Global Investors into DM and EM funds Flows from global investors into DM and EM equity funds are just slightly positive year-to-date. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Fed Funds Rate Less U.S. Core PCE Is the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy really restrictive in order to return inflation to 2%? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Flows – Retail Money Market Funds As interest rates increase, inflows into retail money market funds continue to exhibit strength. Image: Topdown Charts