Gold Bullion and Market Capitalization of Global Negative Yielding Debt This chart shows a strong correlation between gold and market capitalization of global negative yielding debt. Keep in mind that negative global yields are a support for gold. Image: Pictet Wealth Management
Market Capitalization – United States vs. Asia vs. Europe The U.S. market outperformed global markets over the past decade due to strong earnings, profitability, and capital dynamics, but sustaining this may be challenging given high valuations and other factors. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Market Breadth – Percent Below 52-Week High S&P 500 Index Less Median Stock In recent months, the S&P 500’s 52-week market breadth has shown signs of deterioration. Is an improvement possible before the end of the year? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Equity Market Concentration – Market Capitalization of 10 Largest Companies as Share of S&P 500 Total The S&P 500’s top 10 stocks hold a disproportionately large share of the index’s weight relative to their earnings, which amplifies risks tied to volatility, diversification, and sector exposure. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession The market-implied probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months stands at 18%, just above its long-term average. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Different Market Sentiment Indicators The prevailing market sentiment is marked by an equilibrium between optimism and caution, with no decisive dominance of bullish or bearish perspectives at present. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Concentration – Top 10, Top 3 and Top 1 as % of Total (In Terms of Total Equity Market Capitalization) China has one of the lowest market capitalization concentrations worldwide, with its top ten companies comprising only 17% of total market cap—much less than the US’s 34%—indicating greater growth potential in China. Image: Goldman Sachs…
Concentration – Top 10 as % of Total (In Terms of Total Equity Market Capitalization) Compared to the U.S. market, China’s equity market currently shows a historically low level of market capitalization concentration, indicating greater growth potential. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Market-Implied U.S. Recession Probability The market-implied probability suggests a modestly elevated risk of a U.S. recession within the next year, slightly above its long-term average. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings Sentiment (Analyst Upgrades Minus Downgrades Across Markets) Recent weeks have seen a sustained rise in S&P 500 earnings sentiment, driven by strong corporate results and a persistent trend of earnings beats. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Global Equity Valuations With U.S. equities priced at a premium and other global markets—such as Emerging, Frontier, and non-US Developed Markets—offering more attractive valuations, investors are reevaluating their global diversification strategies. Image: Topdown Charts