Search Results for: economic

Probability of U.S. Recession Over Next 12 Months The probability of U.S. recession over the next 12 months based on economic indicators stands at 45.6%. Image: J.P. Morgan

Buybacks Are the Source of the Rally in the Stock Market since 2009 But as trade tensions and economic slowdown worry U.S. firms, stock buybacks declined last quarter. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research

Demographics – U.S. Population Aging and Pension Demand for Bonds This chart suggests that U.S. pension demand for bonds is going to increase, as the proportion of 65+ rises. Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond

Time from 2s-10s Yield Curve Inversion until Recession Starts Recession tends to start in one to three years after the yield curve inversion. The yield curve is only one indicator among others of an economic puzzle. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research

U.S. Jobless Claims Lead the Unemployment Rate This chart suggests that U.S. jobless claims lead the unemployment rate by 7 months. U.S. initial claims for unemployment fall more than expected to 209,000. Image: Oxford Economics

U.S. Private Sector Yield Curve Currently, the U.S. private sector yield curve (20-year Baa bonds/bank prime rate) is the most inverted since October 2007. Image: GnS Economics

U.S. Excess Liquidity Growth Leads S&P 500 Returns This chart suggests that M2 money supply to nominal GDP ratio leads S&P 500 returns by one year. Is the S&P 500 vulnerable to a drop, followed by a recovery? Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond

U.S. GDP and S&P 500 This interesting chart puts market corrections and U.S. GDP in perspective.  Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond

Inequality: CEO Compensation vs. Typical Worker Compensation in the U.S. CEO compensation has grown 940% since 1978, while typical worker compensation has risen by only 12%. Image: Economic Policy Institute

U.S. Household Debt and World Trade This chart shows the pretty good correlation between U.S. household debt and world trade. Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond