U.S. Market Breadth At the dotcom bubble peak, the percentage of stocks outperforming the S&P 500 was 27% vs. 42% today (the historical average is 48%). Currently, the relative market breadth isn’t as extreme as it was in 2000. Image: Fidelity Investments
Calendar Year Performance During U.S. Presidential Election Years Presidential election years have historically been good for U.S. equities, when an incumbent president winds up winning reelection. Image: BlackRock Investment Institute
S&P 500 Annual Return: Dividends, Earnings Growth and Multiple Expansion In 2019, the S&P 500 rose 31.5%. 26.9% came from multiple expansion, 2.6% from dividends, and 2.0% from earnings growth. Historically, S&P multiples contract or remain flat following years of big multiple expansion. Image: Richardson Wealth
U.S. Prime Age Employment Ratio and Wage Growth Wage growth is sluggish, despite historically low unemployment in the United States. Image: Swedbank Research
Are Fears About an Imminent Recession Overblown? Historically, a recession is coming when the Leading Index for the United States is below 1. Today, it stands at 1.37. “The leading index for each state predicts the six-month growth rate of the state’s coincident index. In addition to the coincident index, the models include other variables…
Sharpe Ratio and U.S. Treasury Strips Curve Historically, high sharpe ratios have been usually unsustainable. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
U.S. ISM Recession Probability Chart showing that historically, a level greater than 44.5% has indicated a recession. Current U.S. ISM levels suggest a recession probability of 10%. Image: Pictet Asset Management
U.S. President’s Approval Rating vs. U.S. Unemployment Rate at End of First Term President Trump’s approval rating is historically low compared to the unemployment rate. Image: J.P. Morgan
Valuation – S&P 500 Forward P/E Ratio Chart showing that the forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 remains at high level, above its historical range. Image: Fidelity Investments
Performance of MSCI ACWI Around Global Health Emergencies Historically, the global stock market has bottomed, when the WHO has declared a global health emergency. Image: Ned Davis Research