Search Results for: economic

U.S. Yield Curve Leads Corporate Profits This chart suggests that the U.S. 10-year less 3-month yield curve leads corporate profits by two years. Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond

Small Caps Relative Performance Leads the S&P 500 Index This chart suggests that small caps relative performance leads the S&P 500 Index by six months. Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond

Demographics – Older Societies Have Lower Inflation This interesting chart shows again that an aging population leads to lower inflation (R² = 0.45). Image: Oxford Economics

Fed Funds Rate Leads Money-Market Fund Inflows The chart suggests that Fed funds rate leads money-market fund inflows by two years. Money-market fund inflows stop when risk becomes attractive again. Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond

MOVE vs. Treasury Term Premium This chart shows the nice correlation between MOVE (implied volatility of U.S. Treasury markets) and the Treasury term premium. The term premium is the risk premium (or the bonus) that investors receive for the risk of owning longer-term bonds. Image: Longview Economics, Macrobond

Contribution of Consumption to China’s GDP Growth This chart shows that consumption is the primary driver of China’s economic growth. You may also like “China Real GDP Growth Projection.” Image: ANZ Research

U.S. Budget Deficits and the U.S. Dollar Pretty good correlation between U.S. budget deficits and the U.S. dollar over the past 30 years. The chart suggests that the U.S. dollar should weaken over time. You may also like “U.S. Twin Deficits (% of GDP) Lead Real Trade Weighted Dollar Index by Two Years” and “U.S. Dollar…

The Trade War Effect on Crude Oil This chart shows Chinese imports of crude oil from U.S.. Image: Capital Economics

ISM Manufacturing Index – Mini-Cycles and Recessions During the economic cycle, the last mini-cycle usually leads to a recession. Image: Charles Schwab

U.S. Recession Risk Indicators An inverted yield curve and gloomy confidence expectations generally do not bode well. Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond