Performance of S&P 500 Index Around Global Health Emergencies Historically, market reactions to previous major health scares have shown short-term volatility, but no disruptions over an extended period of time. Image: Ned Davis Research
12-Month Earnings Yield Less Fed Funds Rate The 12-month earnings yield less Fed funds rate is just back to its historical average. Image: KKR Global Macro
Chicago Fed National Activity Index and Recessions The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fall to -0.35 in December, and stayed at a negative reading. Anything negative is below-average growth. In recent history, anything at or below -0.7 (red line) was equivalent to a recession. “A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding…
U.S. Output Gap and Inflation This chart shows that actual U.S. GDP is higher than potential GDP. Historically, a positive output gap leads to inflation. Image: Richardson Wealth
Dow Jones Price Since 1980 Historical chart of the Dow Jones from 1K to 29K. Image: CNBC
MSCI Emerging Markets Relative to the U.S. and U.S. Dollar Historically, a weak U.S. dollar tends to be good for emerging markets relative to the U.S.. Image: Datastream, J.P. Morgan
Gold and Emerging Market Currency Index Historically, a weak U.S. dollar tends to be good for gold and emerging markets. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
U.S. Stock Market – Valuation Metric Is the U.S. stock market overvalued? By historical standards, many traditional valuation metrics look expensive. Image: Charles Schwab
S&P 500 Valuation Metric Is the U.S. equity market overvalued? The S&P 500’s median valuation metric is in the 89th percentile. That’s not cheap by historical standards. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Percentage of Markets with Positive Return in Year Two Historically, markets have generally finished higher in year two given above-average return in year one. Image: J.P. Morgan