University of Michigan Current Economic Conditions Index and Recessions This chart shows that historical drops of more than -20 points in consumer confidence current conditions have signaled recessions since 1979. The current drop stands at -15.9 points. Image: Knowledge Leaders Capital
ISM Manufacturing Index and S&P 500 1-Month Return The current S&P 500 option implied 1-month return distribution is pricing a low probability of a right tail relative to historical realised. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Long-Term Business Cycle and Recessions This chart suggests that historically, when the U.S. long-term business cycle peaks in the 90th percentile and turns lower, it doesn’t bode well for equities around 4 months later on average. Image: Pictet Asset Management
U.S. Stock Market – Earnings and Valuation The valuation is high relative to history, but not near historical extremes. The U.S. stock market should remain under pressure until Q3 earnings season. Image: Fidelity Investments
Presidential Election – U.S. Presidential Score Sheet for the Final Year of the First Term Historically, a U.S. president is re-elected when at least consumer confidence and the unemployment rate improve. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch
Different Holders of DM Government Debt The chart shows the historical breakdown of different holders of DM government bonds and overall DM debt-to-GDP. Even with QE, central bank government bond holdings are below historical peaks. Image: BlackRock Investment Institute
Inverted Yield Curve: Months From Inversion to Recession Historically, the time lag between the inversion and the recession was 21 months Image: LPL Research
Risk Parity Funds Currently, risk parity equity allocations are near the top of the historical range. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
Don’t Fight the Tape or the Fed When the Tape and Fed lean bullish, as today, the S&P 500 has historically risen at 17.96%/year since 1968 vs. 9.98%/year on a buy-and-hold basis. Image: Ned Davis Research
U.S. Equities – One Year Return After a Fed Rate Cut The chart shows how U.S. equities have historically performed after a 25 bps and 50 bps Fed rate cut over the last 35 years. You may also like “First Fed Rate Cut.” Image: Ycharts