Money Market Fund Assets After a Fed rate cut, U.S. money market funds usually see outflows within 12 months as investors realign their portfolios and manage risk in response to shifting interest rates and market conditions. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Ownership Breakdown of the U.S. Equity Market (Share of Corporate Equity Market) U.S. households hold 38% of the U.S. equity market, reflecting strong confidence in stocks. However, ownership is concentrated, with the wealthiest 10% owning about 93% of all stocks owned by households. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession The current market-implied probability of a U.S. recession occurring within the next 12 months stands at 35%, which is quite high by historical standards. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Sentiment – Risk Appetite and Expected U.S. Equity Market Performance In October, U.S. equity investors have shown an improved risk appetite. However, it remains in negative territory amid persistent worries about potential near-term market losses. Image: S&P Global Market Intelligence
Performance – Price Ratio of Emerging Markets to U.S. Equities Since the global financial crisis, emerging market equities have continuously underperformed U.S. equities, leading to the current situation where the ratio between the two is at its lowest since 1969. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Percent of S&P 500 Market Cap Reporting Earnings With a significant number of S&P 500 companies set to report their earnings shortly, market participants will be closely monitoring these results for indications of economic health and sector-specific performance. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
China as % of MSCI ACWI Market Capitalization Assuming that China’s market capitalization as a percentage of the MSCI ACWI rises to its 2018 high of 4.0%, this scenario presents a potential upside of approximately 30% for investors. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Emerging Market Debt + Equity Flows The substantial inflows into emerging market assets highlight a robust interest from investors. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Money Market Fund Flows In the lead-up to U.S. elections, money market funds, which are seen as a safe haven, frequently see inflows as investors aim to lower their risk exposure. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Market Pricing of Fed Rate Cuts BofA expects the Fed to cut another 75bp this year, consistent with market pricing, particularly in light of recent economic conditions and the Fed’s recent decision to cut rates by 50bp. Image: BofA Global Research