MSCI World Index Valuation at Cycle Peaks and Troughs On average, the MSCI World Index currently trades at a price-to-earnings ratio that has marked cyclical peaks in the stock market over the past 50 years. Image: Charles Schwab
Growth and Inflation This chart shows the ISM Index vs. prices paid deviation from the mean since 2009. Currently, the U.S. manufacturing cycle has headed back into recession & deflation. Image: Fidelity Investments
U.S. Rate-Cut Cycles and the U.S. Dollar The U.S. dollar has weakened only once, over the past four U.S. rate-cut cycles. Image: T. Rowe Price
Major Oil Supply Disruptions As a reminder, disruptions in the oil market have always led to higher oil prices. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
Effects and Durations of 19 Oil Market Disruptions This table shows that disruptions in the oil market have always led to higher oil prices. Image: PKVerleger, LLC
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Chart showing that the S&P 500 continues to price in a strong rebound in the ISM, from 49 to 54 (R = 0.62). Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
Estimated Tariff Impact on Core Inflation President Trump’s decision to increase the tariff rate will lead to a greater boost to U.S. consumer prices. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Forecast for 2019 Goldman Sachs is holding its year-end price-target for the S&P 500 at 3100, and its downside scenario at 2620 (as of August 23, 2019). Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Gold Sentiment at Annual High The gold price ‘risk radar’ index is flashing red (-2.1 standard deviations). Image: Sentix, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Strong Dollar and Imports The chart shows that a stronger dollar depresses goods prices via imports. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research