St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index Before a coming recession, also watch the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index for forecasting the future. It uses 18 weekly data series to measure financial stress in the market: seven interest rate series, six yield spreads and five other indicators. Each of these variables captures some aspect of financial stress.…
Real GDP vs. Real Fed Funds Rate One of our most favorite charts is the real GDP vs. the real Fed funds rate (adjusted for inflation). Historically, recessions begin when the real Fed Funds rate exceeds GDP growth. We are far from that today. So, this cycle should not end any time soon. Real Fed…
Real Fed Funds Rate Real Fed funds rate is a key indicative factor, because it’s a very good measure of how tight or loose monetary policy is. Real Fed funds rate is the “true cost” of borrowing money. Recessions have always been preceded by a substantial tightening of monetary policy, which, in real terms, matter…
Yield Curve Inversion A yield curve inversion is a necessary condition for a recession, but it is not a sufficient condition. We also need a widening of credit spreads and higher real interest rates. And currently, the long end of the yield curve has a normal upward slope. You may also like “Why the Current Business…
Watch Warren Buffett’s full interview with CNBC’s Becky Quick In this interview, Warren Buffett speaks about rail road, Berkshire Hathaway, economic slowdown, yield curve, recession, stock vs. bond, airlines & automotive industry, capitalism, inequality, benefits of free trade, IPOs, entertainment industry, Apple, American Express, Wells Fargo, real estate commission, philanthropy with 2% of GDP, odds,…
John Rogers, Founder of $12 Billion Ariel Investments, Breaks Down His Firm’s Market-Beating Returns John Rogers speaks about its firm’s success and his investments during the great recession. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dYImHeH1I0U
https://www.isabelnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/stock-market-equity-risk-premium.mp4 This fabulous model shows if the US stock market return for the next 10 years is more or less attractive than the 10-Year Treasury Note The US stock market equity risk premium is the US stock market excess return for the next 10 years over the US 10-year Treasury Note. This is the premium…
https://www.isabelnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/stock-market-valuation.mp4 This powerful model looks into the US stock market and alerts if it is overvalued or undervalued The model shows the valuation percentage to the right and to the left. In the middle, it shows what the probability of each event happening is. Probability is a way to show how often an event will…
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Advanced Stock Market Forecast 96% Correlation since 1970 Stock Market Valuation Short- and Long-Term Forecasts Bull and Bear Indicator Equity Risk Premium R² = 0.94 since 1970 For Professionals and Individuals View More Subscribe Now! Check out our Stock Market Forecasting Models “Your results are very interesting” Howard Marks Legendary investor Our Features Five Advanced…