Expected Fed Funds Rate as of June 20, 2019 Fed funds futures for January 2021 imply an expected rate of only 1.26% (traders are pricing in more than four full cuts). You may also like “Markets Have Accurately Priced in Cuts before Easing Cycles Begin.”
The Market is Almost Wrong about What the Fed Will Do Actually, the Fed decides when to raise rates. But the market decides when to cut rates: “Markets have accurately priced in cuts before easing cycles begin.” Keep in mind that rate cut expectations are highly predictive six months in advance. You may also like “Fed Policy…
Expected Fed Funds Rate as of June 1, 2019 Traders are pricing in two full cuts in the fed funds target before the end of 2019. Fed funds futures for January 2020 imply an expected rate of only 1.85%. Let’s hope the Fed gets the message from the market. You may also like “Markets Have…
The Fed Fund Futures Market Is Pricing Three Rate Cuts Over the Next 12 Months According to CME Group, the Fed fund futures market is pricing three rate cuts over the next 12 months. You may also like “Markets Have Accurately Priced in Cuts before Easing Cycles Begin“ Image: Bianco Research LLC
The Top Wealthiest Countries in 2018 The United States is the world’s largest wealth market with $60.7 trillion in 2018. Inequality: you may also like “Lower Incomes Paid the Highest Price.” Image: Visual Capitalist
Commodity Stock Index vs. Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1937 The chart shows that commodity stock prices have never been more depressed relative to the stock market. This Commodity Stock Index aligns with S&P North American Natural Resource Stock Index. Image: Goehring & Rozencwajg
“The Stock Market Is Filled with Individuals…” –Phillip Fisher Quote of the day: “The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing.” –Phillip Fisher
Does Bitcoin Have Intrinsic Value? Well, although skeptics say Bitcoin has no value, JP Morgan says Bitcoins have “intrinsic value” using the cost of production approach following Hayes. See: Adam Hayes, A Cost of Production Model for Bitcoin (March 19, 2015).
For the Last Few Years, Equity Markets Have Been Leading Bond Markets When both markets do not react simultaneously, then one market leads the other and the securities are mispriced temporarily. Image: Hayek and Keynes
Central Bank Balance Sheets vs. Global Equities Central banks do influence some asset prices, but correlation is not causation. Image: DoubleLine