S&P 500 TTM YoY EPS vs. Fed Funds Target Traditionally, when the Fed starts cutting interest rates, corporate profits tend to decelerate. However, this’s not the case today, highlighting the unique economic landscape we face. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
S&P 500 Historical Earnings-per-Share (EPS) The consensus projection suggests that the S&P 500 will achieve 18% EPS growth by the end of 2025, reflecting confidence in corporate profitability as we move into 2025. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Magnificent 7 vs. the Other 493 Consensus Quarterly EPS While the Magnificent Seven have been the main drivers of S&P 500 earnings growth, the remaining 493 stocks are expected to catch up. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Global EPS Model vs. Consensus EPS BofA indicates a trend of slowing growth in its global earnings per share model, reflecting a shift toward a more cautious economic outlook. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
S&P 500 EPS and Index Level Forecasts Over time, stock prices are driven by earnings. According to Goldman Sachs, the S&P 500 is expected to see earnings per share growth of 8% in 2024 and 6% in 2025. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Bottom-Up Consensus S&P 500 EPS Estimates Goldman Sachs expects the S&P 500 to see stronger earnings growth in the second half of 2024, driven by resilient economic conditions and sales growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Senior Loan Officer Survey and S&P 500 EPS A continued slowdown in earnings growth is expected through the end of the year. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
LEI 6-Month ROC vs. S&P 500 EPS Annual % Change The 6-month annual rate of change of the Leading Economic Index is highly correlated with S&P 500 earnings growth. Should U.S. equity investors remain cautious? Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Forward EPS vs. Fed Funds Rate When forward EPS growth goes negative, the Federal Reserve typically does not hike rates. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Economic Composite Index vs. S&P 500 EPS YoY % Change U.S. economic activity is highly correlated with S&P 500 earnings growth. Should U.S. equity investors be worried? Image: Real Investment Advice
Philly Fed Future Nominal Orders vs. S&P 500 12-Months Forward EPS (Leading Indicator) A severe contraction in earnings growth should hurt U.S. stocks in 2023. Image: Nordea and Macrobond