Term Premium on a 10-Year Zero Coupon Bond Term premium on a 10-year zero coupon bond remains in negative territory. Investors do not seem to fear rising rates over the long-term. The term premium is the risk premium (or the bonus) that investors receive for the risk of owning longer-term bonds.
The Equity Risk Premium May Be Bullish The equity risk premium suggests that the S&P 500 is not overvalued, which may be a bullish signal. You may also like our “Stock Market Equity Risk Premium.” Image: Fidelity Management and Research
Why a Low or Negative Equity Risk Premium Coincides with a Temporary Market Peak? Because it pushes investors into bonds rather than equities. This was the case in 1973, 1981, 2000, 2007 and 2018 before the market crash. The current equity risk premium is available to our subscribers. Our equity risk premium model has a great 96% correlation with…
https://www.isabelnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/stock-market-equity-risk-premium.mp4 This fabulous model shows if the US stock market return for the next 10 years is more or less attractive than the 10-Year Treasury Note The US stock market equity risk premium is the US stock market excess return for the next 10 years over the US 10-year Treasury Note. This is the premium…
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Valuation – S&P 500 NTM P/E The increase in term premium has not yet affected P/E ratios. This trend deserves careful monitoring due to its significant impact on equity valuations and broader market dynamics. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Valuation – Forward 12-Month P/E for S&P 500 While U.S. equities are trading at a premium to global stocks, this situation reflects both the strength of the U.S. market and economy. But there are potential risks associated with high valuations and market concentration. Image: Bloomberg
Valuation – S&P 500 Forward P/E Investors are willing to pay a premium for mega-cap tech stocks, which are priced higher than the overall market due to their strong growth potential and market dominance. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 vs. S&P 500 Equal-Weight The S&P 500 cap-weighted index return premium has reached extreme levels. Should investors now favor the S&P 500 equal-weighted index over the cap-weighted index? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Valuation – S&P 500 Normalized P/E Ratio At 22x, the S&P 500 is currently trading over 40% above the long-term average, which suggests that investors are willing to pay a premium for stocks in the index. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy