The Performance of “Deflation Assets” vs. “Inflation Assets” Interesting chart showing the performance of “Deflation Asset” vs. “Inflation Assets” since 1960. “Deflation Assets”: Government Bonds, US Investment Grade, S&P 500, US Consumer Discretionary, Growth and US High Yield “Inflation Assets”: TIPS, EAFE, US Banks, Value and Cash Image: BofA Merrill Lynch
Global Corporate Bond Sales Companies sold a record amount of bonds in September. Yield-seeking investors were served up $434bn of new corporate bonds globally. Image: Financial Times
Demographics and Interest Rates Interesting chart suggesting that demographics explain bond yields. Image: Fidelity Investments
S&P 500 Valuation and Equity Risk Premium This chart shows that the equity risk premium (earnings yield less 10-year Treasury yield) has declined to 3.9%. Image: Fidelity Investments
Time Lags Between Indicators and Recessions Chart showing that credit standards, earnings and the yield curve are the earliest recession indicators. Image: Oxford Economics
Historical Default Rate and Recession Periods in the U.S. Default rates on high-yield corporate bonds have exceeded 10% over the past three recessions. Image: Altman-Kuehne and NBER
Trade War and Financial Conditions Index The trade war has tightened the Goldman Sachs FCI by about 60bp cumulatively. The Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index (FCI) is a weighted sum of a long-term corporate yield, a short-term bond yield, the exchange rate, and a stock market variable. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Equity Risk Premium The equity risk premium (earnings yield less bond yield) stands at 4.48% (the 90th percentile since 1985). It suggests that equities are cheap relative to bonds. Image: Fidelity Investments
Small Bank Lending and 2-Year/Fed Funds Spread This chart shows the correlation between small bank lending and falling rates, and the negative effect of an inverted yield curve on small bank lending. Image: TS Lombard
Equity Volatility vs. Equity Allocation As equity volatility rises (inverted on the chart), equity allocations come down. You may alos like “The Yield Curve Leads VIX (Volatility) by Three Years.” Picture Source: Deutsche Bank