Search Results for: yield

U.S. Recession Risk Indicators An inverted yield curve and gloomy confidence expectations generally do not bode well. Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond

Fed Funds Target Rate and VIX Is more volatility expected ahead? This great chart suggests that the Fed funds target rate leads VIX by 2 years. You may also like “VIX is in a Transitory State” and “The Yield Curve Leads Volatility by Three Years.” Image: Bloomberg, Jeffrey Kleintop

Valuation and Demographics Our world is aging with high levels of debt and low interest rates, maybe for a long time. The chart shows that an aging population affects yields. You may also like “Debt and Demographics.” Image: Fidelity Investments

U.S. Bond Market Hedged and Unhedged Investors are frantically searching for yield, knowing that 25% of all bonds in the world trade at negative interest rates. Our world is aging with high levels of debt and low interest rates (maybe for a long time). Image: Fidelity Investments

S&P 500 vs. Percentage of Sectors at All-Time Highs Currently, only three sectors are at all-time highs, while 60% of the yield curve is inverted. Image: Crescat Capital LLC

Best First Half for U.S. Equities and U.S. Bonds since 1995 Since 1995, it is the best first half for U.S. equities and U.S. long bonds, despite the challenge of low bond yields. Image: Financial Times

U.S. Monthly Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Keep in mind that mortgage costs are influenced by the 10-year Treasury yield. 30-year mortgage rates = 1.739 x (10-year treasury yield)² + 0.7755 x (10-year treasury yield) + 0.0227(R² = 0.9787) You may also like “30-Year Mortgage Rates vs. 10-Year Treasury Yield.” Image: Leonard Kiefer

The Secular Trend for U.S. Interest Rates This nice chart shows the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield against the natural rate (nominal R-Star) and monetary velocity. In a sense, it explains the secular trend for U.S. interest rates. Image: Fidelity Investments

Can Small Business Predict the Business Cycle? A widening high-yield spread remains a useful indicator for predicting a coming recession in the current interest rate environment. You may also like “A Widening of Credit Spreads Is Very Useful to Predict a Recession.“ Image: Quill Intelligence, LLC​

New York Fed Probability of Recession in Next 12 Months since 1990 When an inverted yield curve occurs, short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. It suggests that the long-term economic outlookis poor and that the yields offered by long-term fixed income securities will continue to decline. Since 1962, no recession has occurred without an inverted…