Correlation Between U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and Regional Indexes This chart shows the quite good correlation between the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and regional indexes (Philly Fed, Dallas Fed, Richmond Fed, and NY Empire). Image: Saxo Bank
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and Historical Mean The historical mean of the ISM Manufacturing Index stands at 52.9. Image: Saxo Bank Research & Strategy
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. Manufacturing Production This chart shows the ISM survey (sentiment) versus the real world (hard data) and suggests it is not yet catastrophic. Image: Swedbank Research
Sentiment on Durable Goods Purchases Lead the Unemployment Rate This chart suggests that sentiment on durable goods purchases lead the unemployment rate by 12 months, and that the U.S. economy seems to be moving into the late phase of its business cycle. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
Total Global Debt to GDP The global debt-to-GDP ratio is hovering near a record at $244 trillion. That’s now more than three times the size of the world economy. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
China – Required Reserve Ratio vs. M1 Money Supply Growth The People’s Bank of China slashed the reserve requirement ratio for most financial institutions, but M1 money supply growth is currently near the lowest. This is not good news for GDP growth. Image: Jeroen Blokland
Global Manufacturing: Manufacturing as Percentage of Gross Value Added The key question: is the United States really decoupled from the rest of the world? Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
Global Real Yields Since 1805 Negative real yields are an “opportunity” for any government to refinance their debt. Image: Deutsche Bank
Median Developed Market Debt to GDP The total debt to gross domestic product is going back to 1865 for 12 developed countries. Image: Deutsche Bank
War Scenario for the Oil Price A war between U.S./Saudi Arabia and Iran could lead to soaring oil prices and a global recession. Image: Danske Bank Research
Top Three Crude Oil Producers Chart showing that the U.S. is the world’s biggest oil producer and has surpassed Russia and Saudi Arabia. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research