Demographics – U.S. 10-Year Rate, Labor Force Growth and Nominal GDP Growth Chart suggesting that the current trend in labor force growth and nominal GDP growth points to higher rates. Image: Swedbank Research
Job Openings and Average Weekly Hours The number of job openings fell in August, mirroring the decline in average weekly hours, and confirming that the U.S. labor market is cooling. Image: TD Bank Financial Group
China GDP vs. U.S. GDP Chart suggesting that China GDP will overtake U.S. GDP by 2030. Image: Danske Bank Research
S&P 500 – Buybacks, Dividends and Capital Expenditures 2018 corporate tax cut boosted dividends and buybacks, but not capex. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
China GDP Growth China GDP growth is expected to continue to decline significantly in the coming years, with consumption becoming the main driver of growth. Image: Danske Bank Research
Inequality – U.S. Gini Coefficient for Households U.S. inequality reached highest level since 1967. Gini coefficient: 0 equals perfect equality, while 1 equals perfect inequality. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Leads U.S. Unemployment Rate This chart suggests that the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index leads the U.S. unemployment rate by 9 months. An R² of 0.80 is quite high and significant. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Health Care Costs U.S. health care costs have skyrocketed and are higher than in any other country Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
U.S. ISM Composite Index and U.S. Real GDP This chart shows the good correlation between the ISM Composite Index (services + manufacturing) and U.S. real GDP. What about U.S. GDP growth in 2020? Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
China and Taiwan Manufacturing PMI The charts suggest a bottom in the Chinese and Taiwanese cycle in early 2020. Historically, this has been positive for global equities. Image: Danske Bank Research