Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession The current market-implied probability of a U.S. recession occurring within the next 12 months stands at 35%, which is quite high by historical standards. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Global Equities Around Fed Cut With And Without Recession Global equities typically show strong performance following the Fed’s first rate cut, when the economy avoids a recession during the next 12 months. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Estimated U.S. Recession Probability Goldman Sachs has reduced its U.S. recession forecast probability from 20% to 15% based on recent macroeconomic data, especially a strong employment report that surpassed expectations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Target Goldman Sachs expects S&P 500 EPS to be $268 in 2025, and has set a 12-month price target of 6,300 for the S&P 500 index. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – S&P 500 Next-Twelve-Months P/E Multiple Goldman Sachs maintains a constructive outlook on U.S. equities. While the current P/E multiple is above historical averages, it reflects economic fundamentals and market conditions. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Percent of S&P 500 Market Cap Reporting Earnings With a significant number of S&P 500 companies set to report their earnings shortly, market participants will be closely monitoring these results for indications of economic health and sector-specific performance. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
High-Yield (HY) Spread USD Goldman Sachs forecasts a favorable high-yield bond market over the next 12 months, anticipating tighter spreads as a result of robust economic conditions and optimistic investor sentiment. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Pre and Post Fed Rate Cuts The performance of the S&P 500 following the Fed’s first rate cut has historically been robust, but this trend is closely tied to the state of the U.S. economy, particularly regarding the risk of recession. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Sector Composition of the S&P 500 by Equity Capitalization The market capitalization of sectors within the S&P 500 reflects the market’s changing landscape, driven by economic conditions and investor sentiment, leading to fluctuations in sector performance over time. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Trailing 4-Quarter ROE The S&P 500’s trailing twelve months return on equity has remained stable year-to-date at 20.7%, ranking in the 97th percentile. This high ROE is a positive indicator for investors, reflecting strong profitability among S&P 500 companies. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research