Fed Funds Rate vs. U.S. Job Openings (JOLTS)
Fed Funds Rate vs. U.S. Job Openings (JOLTS) Declining wage growth and employment would allow the Fed to make substantial cuts in interest rates. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Fed Funds Rate vs. U.S. Job Openings (JOLTS) Declining wage growth and employment would allow the Fed to make substantial cuts in interest rates. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Market Pricing of Fed Cuts vs. Real 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield When the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, it often leads to lower real yields, as investors adjust their expectations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Rolling Fed Hikes/Cuts Over the Last 12 Months and Recessions When the Fed increases interest rates too quickly or aggressively, it can lead to a recession. Image: Deutsche Bank
Fed – Months from Last Hike to First Fed Cut and from First Cut to U.S. Recession Historically, the median time from the last interest rate hike to the first cut is 4 months. Image: Deutsche Bank
Fed Funds Rate vs. Recessionary Bear Market Lows Fed rate cuts are historically not bullish for the S&P 500. Image: BofA Research Investment Committee
Fed Funds Rate When will the Fed start cutting rates? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Core Inflation vs. Unemployment at First Cut in Each Fed Easing Cycle The U.S. unemployment rate and core inflation do not suggest that the Fed will cut interest rates anytime soon. Image: Deutsche Bank
Inflation vs. Short Term Rate Expectations Will recessionary conditions and cooler inflation force the Fed to cut rates in 2023? Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
Markets Bottoms and Fed Fund Rates Should U.S. equity investors be worried when the Fed cuts rates? Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Fed Funds Pricing by FOMC Meeting Markets expect a Fed funds terminal rate at 3.25% and the Fed to cut rates in 2023. Image: BofA Global Research
Fed – Median U.S. CPI at the Start of the 13 Hiking Cycles Could the Fed cut rates even if inflation remains elevated? Image: Deutsche Bank