S&P 500 Index: Recession Rate Cuts vs. Precautionary Rate Cuts This chart shows what the U.S. market has done after first Fed cut in a business cycle. The current path follows precautionary rate cuts and does not suggest an imminent recession in the U.S.. Image: UBS
Average S&P 500 Performance Following 3rd Fed Rate Cut In the Fed rate cutting cycle, the chart shows the average S&P 500 performance following a 3rd Fed rate cut, with less than two additional cuts, and two or more additional cuts. Image: Strategas
S&P 500 Performance Leading to U.S. Election Date This table shows that over the last 20 election cycles in the U.S., there have been only two instances of market declines in the 12 months leading to the election results. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
S&P 500 Total Return Change During Economic Expansions The current business cycle is the longest and weakest expansion. The next downturn could hit the U.S. stock market much harder than the economy. Image: Irrelevant Investor LLC
U.S. Nominal GDP vs. S&P 500 Volatility This chart shows that the S&P 500 volatility remains high in a context of slower macroeconomic cycles. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 and Recession Probability Great chart showing twelve Fed easing cycles since the 1950s, including the recession probability and the average return of the S&P 500 Index. Image: Fidelity Investments
S&P 500 Index – Number of 5% Corrections Per Year Since 1990, there has been an average of 3.3 separate 5% declines for the S&P 500 per year. In a late business cycle, volatility increases. This is why, in 2019, we could see several drops of 5%. Image: LPL Research
“Real Fed Rates Are the Most Accurate Predictor of Future S&P 500 Volatility,” Says SocGen SocGen says it is the most accurate predictor of S&P 500’s volatility over the last 50 years. Should investors be nervous about rising real interest rates? Yes, higher real interest rates mean higher borrowing costs. Real Fed funds rate is…
Golden Cross Materializes in S&P 500 Price Action JPMorgan’s Philip Camporeale and David Kotok, CIO at Cumberland Advisors, discuss the late cycle euphoria. Rally in equities continues until it stops!