Total U.S. Equity Fund Flows and Market Capitalization Currently, equity fund outflows over 12m (rolling) are at 1% of market capitalization, as in March 2003, March 2009 and June 2012. Image: UBS
U.S. Market – Earnings, Valuation and Equity Risk Premium This chart shows that the P/E ratio is above average, but the equity risk premium is relatively high. Image: Fidelity Investments
Why a Low or Negative Equity Risk Premium Coincides with a Temporary Market Peak? Because it pushes investors into bonds rather than equities. This was the case in 1973, 1981, 2000, 2007 and 2018 before the market crash. The current equity risk premium is available to our subscribers. Our equity risk premium model has a great 96% correlation with…
https://www.isabelnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/stock-market-equity-risk-premium.mp4 This fabulous model shows if the US stock market return for the next 10 years is more or less attractive than the 10-Year Treasury Note The US stock market equity risk premium is the US stock market excess return for the next 10 years over the US 10-year Treasury Note. This is the premium…
Cumulative Equity Flows U.S. equity inflows, already robust over the past year, have shown notable acceleration in recent weeks, suggesting a favorable environment for further market growth. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Aggregated U.S. Equity Futures Positions Current market dynamics indicate a bullish outlook among leveraged funds and asset managers, who are betting on rising equity prices through increased long positions in futures. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Consolidated Equity Positioning Consolidated equity positioning has reached the 94th percentile, approaching extreme levels and indicating robust market sentiment. Such elevated positioning often serves as a contrarian indicator. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. Household Equity Ownership vs. S&P 500 The U.S. equity market shows resilience due to strong economic indicators and investor confidence. However, record high household allocations pose risks for potential corrections and may lead to subdued future returns. Image: Real Investment Advice
Global Market Capitalization of All Equities The United States’ share of the global equity market has hit a record 66% of total capitalization, reinforcing Warren Buffett’s famous assertion: “It never pays to bet against America.” Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Equity, Bond, FX and Oil Volatility Premiums Volatility premiums have significantly declined across asset classes after the U.S. elections. As election results become known, market uncertainty diminishes, leading to lower volatility premiums and increased stability. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. Equity Sentiment Conditions Index U.S. equity sentiment appears to be at relatively depressed levels heading into the 2024 U.S. presidential election, due to heightened uncertainty, market volatility, and concerns about potential policy shifts. Image: Pictet Asset Management