Bond Yields, U.S. Dollar and Stock Market According to BofA, the biggest summer pain trade would be a rise in bond yields, a falling U.S. dollar and a sideways stock market. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
S&P 500 Sector Return on Equity vs. Price to Book Valuation This chart suggests that sectors trade closely to their return on equity implied valuations (R² = 0.87). Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Current P/E Valuation Based on 2021 EPS Scenarios Goldman Sachs baseline forecast for S&P 500 earnings in 2021 is $170, and the downside forecast is $115. Today, the S&P 500 trades at 19.5x the buy-side estimate of EPS. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Cyclicals vs. Defensives It’s all about sector rotation: the cyclicals vs. defensives trade is now pricing a growth acceleration. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Core Capital Goods Shipment and Non-residential Business Fixed Investment (Capex) Is the “phase one” US-China trade deal enough to reverse the slowdown? Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
U.S. Consumer Confidence and CEO Confidence The trade war keeps weighing on CEO confidence, which is near record lows, while consumer confidence has remained relatively strong. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Liquidity Premium and IG Bonds The spread between low liquid and high liquid IG bonds is widening, despite the rally and the belief of an improvement in US-China trade tensions. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
NFIB Survey Leads U.S. Employment The U.S. economy is not unaffected by the trade war and global slowdown. This chart suggests that U.S. employment is slowing down. The chart also suggests that the NFIB survey leads U.S. employment by 6 months. Image: Rothschild & Co Asset Management Europe
U.S. Nonfarm Employment and NFIB Survey If the trade war continues, it will have serious negative repercussions on the American economy. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
U.S. Stocks with High China Sales and China Stocks with High U.S. Sales US-China trade war affects the relative performance of U.S. and China stocks vs. local market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Stocks with High China Sales vs. S&P 500 US-China trade war affects the relative performance of U.S. stocks with high China sales vs. the S&P 500 index. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research