Search Results for: policy rate

Global Negative Yielding Debt The transition from $18 trillion to zero in negative-yielding debt over the past few years reflects a broader shift away from the era of ultra-low interest rates and easy monetary policy. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

S&P 500 Real Earnings Yield Historically, negative real earnings yields tend to be bearish for U.S. stocks due to policy response. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

Percentage of Time Inflation Below the Central Bank’s Target Is inflation targeting by central banks an effective monetary policy strategy? Image: Deutsche Bank

Fed Funds vs. Employment/Population + Inflation This chart suggests the optimal monetary policy, while Fed officials do not anticipate any rate hikes until 2022. Image: Oxford Economics

U.S. 10-Year Note Yields: Explaining Rolling Three-Month Changes Chart suggesting that U.S. policy uncertainty and Fed committing to low rates explain U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

U.S. Business Cycle: Actual vs. Potential U.S. Real GDP The mature phase of the U.S. business cycle began 2 years ago. If inflation remains stable and the Fed avoids restrictive monetary policy, then the risk of recession is reduced. Image: NBF Economics and Strategy

China Property Sales and Total Credit Growth According to Gavekal, Chinese monetary policy is still in a moderate “selective easing” mode. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond

What is the Biggest Risk Right Now for Investors? What is the Biggest Risk Right Now for Investors? The risk of a Fed policy error The probability of a Fed rate cut in July 2019 is now 84.6%. Image: Bloomberg

What About the Predictive Power of the Fed? As former Fed policymaker Narayana Kocherlakota said in 2016: “Don’t rely on FOMC forecasts of future fed funds rates.” Why? Because the economy is often shaken by crises and does not evolve as expected. Image: Hedgeye Risk Management LLC