Search Results for: growth

Global Composite PMI Leads Global GDP Growth Chart suggesting that the global composite PMI leads global GDP growth by 2 months. Image: Oxford Economics

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and S&P 500 Cyclicals vs. Defensives Chart showing that U.S. cyclicals sectors relative to defensive sectors are still pricing in a strong rebound in growth (R = 0.82). Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Although the non-manufacturing sector’s growth slowed, it continues to reflect strength for now. Image: Nordea and Macrobond

3-Month Rate 1-Year Forward vs. 3-Month Leads U.S. GDP This chart suggests that the 1y3m-3m slope leads U.S. GDP. The 1y3m-3m slope has turned down sharply and is informative for year-head growth. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch

Copper to Gold Ratio and Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) When the copper-to-gold ratio decreases, it is an early warning signal for the economy, meaning that growth optimism is fading. Image: Wells Fargo Investment Institute

Fed Dovish Pivot – Stimulus Hopes Support Risk Appetite Growth sentiment appears to be stabilizing, due to optimism about fiscal policy. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Earnings, Margins and Valuation Considering earnings growth, operating margin and valuation, the S&P 500 should remain under pressure until Q3 earnings season. Image: Fidelity Investments

Demographics – Forecasting U.S. GDP This chart suggests that aging population is weighing down growth. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

Citi Economic Surprise Index vs. EUR/USD Weaker European growth relative to the U.S. could weaken Euro/U.S. Dollar. Image: Credit Suisse

The Impact of an Inverted Yield Curve Great charts showing that a flat/inverted yield curve implies weaker U.S. GDP growth, lower equity returns, and higher volatility. Image: Pictet Asset Management

GLD Gold Holdings SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) is the world’s largest physical gold ETF. A continued growth in ETF gold holdings over a period of time could be a bullish factor. Image: State Street Global Advisors SPDR Gold Shares, Lighthouse