Search Results for: growth

U.S. Business Cycle – Global Equity vs. Bonds and U.S. Unemployment Rate Chart suggesting that U.S. growth has peaked. Image: Pictet Asset Management

Consolidated Equity Positioning Equities positioning are at their highest level in two years, as optimistic investors price in a global growth rebound. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Global Trade Volume Growth in global trade volume is deteriorating at a rapid rate. Image: Financial Times

Chicago Fed National Activity Index and Recessions The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fall to -0.35 in December, and stayed at a negative reading. Anything negative is below-average growth. In recent history, anything at or below -0.7 (red line) was equivalent to a recession. “A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding…

U.S. Asset Correlations and Fed Balance Sheet Trends The correlations between U.S. asset returns and Fed balance sheet growth are generally inconsistent and dimishing over time. Image: J.P. Morgan

Inflation and S&P 500 6-Month Realised Volatility Since 1987, the S&P 500 6-month realised volatility has been the lowest, when U.S. CPI growth has been in the 2 to 3 per cent range. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research

U.S. Commercial and Industrial Loans Outstanding Business loan growth is slowing down, despite Fed easing. Currently, liquidity is going into the financial markets, but not into the real economy. Image: Pictet Wealth Management

Leading Indicators Are Improving Globally Leading economic indicators have been improving throughout 2019. This may suggest that global growth is back on track. Image: Richardson Wealth

Business and Industrial Sentiment vs. U.S. GDP Chart suggesting that business and industrial surveys have not explained U.S. economic growth over the past decade (R² = 0). Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

U.S. Equities and Global Equities ex-U.S. This chart suggests that higher yields could cause great rotation from bonds to stocks, US equities to non-US equities, growth to value, large caps to small caps, tech stocks to bank stocks, credit to commodities,… Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy