U.S. 2s10s Yield Curve and Recessions since 1941 Since 1941, three recessions have occurred without 2s10s yield curve inversion. The yield curve is a great recession indicator among others. Image: Deutsche Bank
Total Allocated Exchange Reserves by Currency The U.S. dollar represents 61% of all central bank foreign reserves. And the total value of all currencies held in foreign exchange reserves is almost $11 trillion. Image: howmuch.net
Buybacks Are the Source of the Rally in the Stock Market since 2009 But as trade tensions and economic slowdown worry U.S. firms, stock buybacks declined last quarter. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
Time from 2s-10s Yield Curve Inversion until Recession Starts Recession tends to start in one to three years after the yield curve inversion. The yield curve is only one indicator among others of an economic puzzle. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
U.S. Equity Volatility and Global Economic Policy Uncertainty The chart shows that U.S. equity volatility does not mirror global economic policy uncertainty since 2009, perhaps due to strong central bank support. Image: Pictet Wealth Management
Strong Dollar and Imports The chart shows that a stronger dollar depresses goods prices via imports. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
Different Holders of DM Government Debt The chart shows the historical breakdown of different holders of DM government bonds and overall DM debt-to-GDP. Even with QE, central bank government bond holdings are below historical peaks. Image: BlackRock Investment Institute
U.S. Private Sector Yield Curve Currently, the U.S. private sector yield curve (20-year Baa bonds/bank prime rate) is the most inverted since October 2007. Image: GnS Economics
Who Owns Different Countries’ Government Bonds? About 70% of the U.S. national debt is owned by domestic government, institutions investors and the Federal Reserve. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
Total Number of Governments since 1945 Italy and France have the largest number of governments since 1945, while the U.S. and Luxembourg have the smallest number. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research