U.S. Real GDP Forecast for 2019 and 2020 Wells Fargo does not yet see a recession in the U.S. and forecasts U.S. real GDP growth of 2.2% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020 (as of October 2019). Image: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
S&P 500 vs. IPO Performance The chart shows how IPOs have performed since 2015. Currently, investors seem reluctant to invest in high-risk, high-growth companies. Image: Richardson Wealth
Construction Sector Activity and Recessions This chart clearly shows that growth of activity in the construction sector is slowing down. Image: Quill Intelligence, LLC
U.S. Equity Fund Flows vs. Bonds and Cash This chart puts into perspective the rotation from equities to bonds and cash, as investors become cautious about further growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings Estimate Progression This chart shows the earnings estimate progression since 2013. For this year, the consensus estimate of EPS growth is currently around 1.9%, and around 9.7% for 2020. Image: Fidelity Investments
Global Financial Conditions Index and Global Manufacturing PMI Chart suggesting that easier financial conditions should feed through to growth, unless monetary policy is less effective. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Advanced Economies – Global GDP Forecast for 2020 Oxford Economics thinks that IMF’s new global GDP growth forecasts for 2020 are too optimistic. Image: Oxford Economics
The Performance of “Deflation Assets” vs. “Inflation Assets” Interesting chart showing the performance of “Deflation Asset” vs. “Inflation Assets” since 1960. “Deflation Assets”: Government Bonds, US Investment Grade, S&P 500, US Consumer Discretionary, Growth and US High Yield “Inflation Assets”: TIPS, EAFE, US Banks, Value and Cash Image: BofA Merrill Lynch
China Imports Lead World GDP This chart shows that China imports is a key factor of global growth, and clearly lead world GDP. Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond
Number of DM and EM Central Banks Easing Each Month Currently, most of the world’s central banks are easing, to boost money supply in the economy and stimulate economic growth. Image: J.P. Morgan
University of Michigan Consumer Expectations Index and Real Consumer Spending This chart shows the correlation between consumer expectations and real consumer spending, and suggests real consumer spending growth of around 2.5-3%. Image: ING