Search Results for: growth

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield vs. U.S. Nominal GDP The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield is highly correlated with the U.S. nominal GDP growth (correlation = 77%). Image: KKR Global Macro

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index The Small Business Optimism Index is driving economic growth. It is a good indicator of the health of small businesses in the U.S.. Image: Ned Davis Research

History of the Real Federal Minimum Wage Today, the real federal minimum wage is worth 31% less than in 1968. It is also the longest period without an increase (adjusted for inflation). You may also like “Wage Growth vs. U.S. Home Price Growth.” Image: Economic Policy Institute

Demographics Explain Sovereign 30-Year Yields Accross Emerging Markets Another great chart showing that emerging market demographics explain 30-year sovereign bond yields. An R² of 0.80 is quite high and significant. You may also like “U.S. Population Growth vs. U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield.” Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

Investors Preference for U.S. Bond Funds Investors rush back into U.S. Treasury ETFs as trade and growth fears rise. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

To Date, the Longest U.S. Expansion in History However, this chart shows that the average growth rate of the current expansion is among the slowest. Image: Bloomberg

Gold vs. Short-term Treasury Yield This chart shows the correlation between gold and 2-year treasury yield (inverse). Gold rises on slowing global growth and short-term treasury yield inverse. Image: Jeroen Blokland

Brent Price vs. 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield vs. S&P 500 This chart shows that oil prices are a good indicator of global economic growth and investors are concerned about a global economic slowdown. Image: Pictet Wealth Management

Societe Generale’s Chart of Swan Risks This chart shows the downside and upside risks to the growth outlook. Biggest risks (black swan): protectionism/trade wars (25%), and European policy uncertainty (20%) Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research

Is The U.S. Economy Slowing Down? The chart below shows that the U.S. economy is slowing down. The U.S.-China trade war and slower global growth are not helping. But as long as there is no recession, slowing down is fine.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – Democrats vs. Republicans This chart shows that Democrats and Republicans have a completely different view of the U.S. economy. Democrats see a recession coming and Republicans see economic growth. Image: John Kemp