Global Equity Fund Flows This great chart from Deutsche Bank shows that equity outflows over the last 6 months are now the largest on record. In 2011 and 2016, it was similar and equities rose significantly. Image: Deutsche Bank
Global Economy Is Late Cycle This chart shows that a record number of fund managers think the global economy is late cycle. Image: Bank of America Merrill Lynch
The U.S. Unemployment Rate Is Historically Low But the FOMC projection suggests that the unemployment rate cannot improve indefinitely. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
CEO Confidence & Business Confidence Deutsche Bank points out that something happened to CEO confidence and business confidence when the trade war escalated in 2018H2. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
American Semiconductor Sales Lead ISM Manufacturing Index by 3 Months This chart shows that the downtrend in American semiconductor sales is currently worrying. You may also like “ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index since 2011.” Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
The Market is Almost Wrong about What the Fed Will Do Actually, the Fed decides when to raise rates. But the market decides when to cut rates: “Markets have accurately priced in cuts before easing cycles begin.” Keep in mind that rate cut expectations are highly predictive six months in advance. You may also like “Fed Policy…
$11 Trillion Bonds Globally Trade At Negative Interest Rates The total amount of negative interest rates climbed to USD 11 trillion. Investors are paying governments for the privilege of holding their bonds and are losing so much money in real terms. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
Can The U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Fall Further? Well, according to this chart, the U.S. 10-year treasury yield could fall further. The chart suggests that G4 central bank assets as percentage of GDP (1-year change) lead U.S. 10-year Treasury yield (1-year change) by one year. Image: Macrobond
Money-Market Funds Flows Over the last 4 weeks, money-market funds have seen a significant inflow of nearly $95 billion. That’s much more larger than in previous years. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Is the US Expansion Fizzling Out? This chart shows that business investment and consumer expenditure decline in the United States. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research