Distribution of S&P 500 12-Month Total Returns Goldman Sachs, in its base case scenario, expects the S&P 500 index to generate a total return of 6% in 2024, which is slightly below the average return typically observed during presidential election years.
S&P 500 Performance in June In the past, when the S&P 500 has increased by more than 8% year-to-date heading into June in a pre-election year, positive outcomes have typically occurred in June. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance November – April During Midterm Years Historically, the six months from November through April have seen the best performance for U.S. stocks following midterm elections. Image: Carson Investment Research
The Presidential Cycle and Average Total Return of the S&P 500 Should investors expect the S&P 500 to rise after midterm elections, despite macro headwinds? Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Index Monthly Performance in October In October, U.S. stocks tend to perform better in odd years than in even years, as odd years avoid elections and midterms. Image: LPL Research
Performance – S&P 500 vs. Basket of 30 Equities Expected to Benefit from a Biden Win Biden longs outperformed in the equity market, as investors are betting on a potential Biden election victory. Image: BofA Global Research
Impact of U.S. Corporate Tax Hike on S&P 500 This table suggests the impact on the S&P 500 if Joe Biden won the election and the Democrats swept both houses of Congress. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
S&P 500 Options – S&P 500 3325-Strike Put Implied Volatility S&P 500 options reflect the possibility that the U.S. election results may be finalized with a delay. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Forward P/E Forecast Goldman Sachs forecasts a forward P/E of 18.6 by year-end, and a downside scenario at 16, depending on tariffs and the US election result. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Forecast for 2020 Goldman Sachs forecasts a price-target for the S&P 500 at 3400 by year-end 2020, and a downside scenario at 2600 depending on tariffs and the US election result. Image: Goldman Sachs