Net % Investors Say They Are Overweight Bonds FMS investors currently have their largest overweight position in bonds since the global financial crisis, indicating their strong confidence in lower inflation and yields for the year 2024. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
Recession – Conference Board: Consumer Expectations – Current Conditions Gloomy confidence expectations have historically not been a positive sign for the U.S. economy, which can potentially lead to reduced spending and investment. Image: The Daily Shot
GDP Consensus Forecasts Optimistic U.S. GDP forecasts suggest that there is confidence in the underlying strength of the U.S. economy. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 Annualized Return on Friday An increase in the S&P 500 on Friday is often interpreted as a positive sign indicating a high level of confidence to hold over the weekend. Image: Carson Investment Research
U.S. Small Cap Stocks – S&P 600 / S&P 500 U.S. small business confidence is deteriorating, which does not bode well for U.S. small-caps, but relative valuations remain attractive. Image: BCA Research
Seasonality – Average Monthly Total Return for the S&P 500 Index and Statistical Significance Over the past 20 years, July has been positive on average with a high confidence level. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Gold’s Last Bull Market and Gold/S&P 500 Correlation During the GFC, the correlation between gold and the S&P 500 was positive. Deutsche Bank suggests that gold could move higher, as investor confidence remains subdued. Image: Deutsche Bank
In Fed We Trust Confidence in Fed chair has reached a 15-year high. Image: Bloomberg
Economy – Where People Are Losing Faith in Capitalism? Some countries appear to have more confidence in capitalism than others. Image: Statista
Ranking Developed Economies by Key Growth Metrics Currently, the United States is ranked numer one in real GDP, core CPI and consumer confidence. Image: Arbor Research & Trading
University of Michigan Current Economic Conditions Index and Recessions This chart shows that historical drops of more than -20 points in consumer confidence current conditions have signaled recessions since 1979. The current drop stands at -15.9 points. Image: Knowledge Leaders Capital