High-Yield Option-Adjusted Spread and Banks Reporting Tightening C&L Loan Standards Banks are tightening lending standards amid uncertain economic outlook, while credit spreads have largely normalized. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Bank Business Lending Standards U.S. banks are tightening lending standards amid uncertain economic outlook. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
% of Economies with Improving Manufacturing PMI vs. Previous Month Global manufacturing outlook improves, as 60% of economies reported better PMIs relative to December 2019. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. Dollar and S&P 500 vs. MSCI World ex-U.S. BofAML suggests that the outlook for the U.S. dollar remains bullish into 2020, but if the S&P 500 is to top out relative to the rest of the world, then the U.S. dollar would likely weaken. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
Gold and Silver Weekly Fund Flows This is the biggest outflows from gold since December 2016, as a more positive global outlook drives optimism. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Investment Strategy
S&P 500 EPS Forecast Despite the earnings squeeze, Goldman Sachs is still positive on the S&P 500 earnings outlook. In 2020, U.S. and global growth should rebound modestly. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Home Builder Sentiment Leads Consumer Spending Interesting chart suggesting that the NAHB housing market index leads the change in consumer spending. The latest reading for July suggests that the outlook for the U.S. economy is expected to slow. Image: Dr Thomas Kevin Swift
Global Yield Curves Global flattening yield curves sound the alarm about the economic outlook. Image: Capital Economics
New York Fed Probability of Recession in Next 12 Months since 1990 When an inverted yield curve occurs, short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. It suggests that the long-term economic outlookis poor and that the yields offered by long-term fixed income securities will continue to decline. Since 1962, no recession has occurred without an inverted…
Yield Curve Inversion, How Long Until The Recession? In recent history, once the 10-Year minus 3-Month Treasury yield spread is negative and hits 10 consecutive days, it persists for weeks/months. When an inverted yield curve occurs, short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. It suggests that the long-term economic outlook is poor and that the yields offered…
Societe Generale’s Chart of Swan Risks This chart shows the downside and upside risks to the growth outlook. Biggest risks (black swan): protectionism/trade wars (25%), and European policy uncertainty (20%) Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research