Money Market Fund Flows and Probability of Recession Investors move to safe assets by raising their cash holdings, like 2007/2008. This chart suggests that the probability of a recession in the next 12 months is high. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
FAANG Stocks vs. S&P 500 Investors opt for safer stocks rather than FAANG stocks. Image: Financial Times
Is Inflation Dead? Deflation Fears Make A Comeback Is deflation on the horizon? Investors expect inflation running below 1.5% YoY for the next three years. Image: Arbor Research & Trading
Global Corporate Bond Sales Companies sold a record amount of bonds in September. Yield-seeking investors were served up $434bn of new corporate bonds globally. Image: Financial Times
Currency Sensitivity vs. VIX If VIX spikes, this chart suggests that investors should be long yen. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
S&P 500 Total Return Change During Economic Expansions The current business cycle is the longest and weakest expansion. The next downturn could hit the U.S. stock market much harder than the economy. Image: Irrelevant Investor LLC
Global PMI Cycles Interesting table showing global PMI cycles: if investors get the global PMI right, they do well. Image: Pervalle Global
Global Equity – Global Bond Fund Flows In the past two weeks, investors have shifted from bonds to equities. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Investment Strategy
Relative Performance of MSCI World Factors In the last two weeks, the shift to value stocks may indicate that investors expect rates to rise. Image: Financial Times
US-China Trade Deal – BofA Survey The September edition of the BofA survey shows that 76% of clients expect a trade deal eventually, but it will take time. Image: BofA Credit Investor Survey