Sentiment Indicator

Sentiment Indicator Are investors be too bullish? Currently, the sentiment indicator is above average at 1.2 standard deviations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Recession Probability – BofA Survey

U.S. Recession Probability – BofA Survey The September edition of the BofA survey shows that U.S. credit investors see a 25% chance of recession over the next 12 months. Image: BofA Credit Investor Survey

Gold Fund Flows

Gold Fund Flows Investors are flooding into gold as fears of a global slowdown mount. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch

Global Bond Fund Flows

Global Bond Fund Flows Over the past 3 months, investors have injected $160bn into bond funds, fearing a global recession. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch

U.S. Equities at 70-Year Highs vs. European Equities

U.S. Equities at 70-Year Highs vs. European Equities Are European stocks more attractive than U.S. stocks? Currently, the euro area economy is more impacted by the global slowdown than the U.S. economy. And investors also think that the euro area economy is less resilient than the U.S. economy in the event of a shock. Image: BofA…

Who Owns Different Countries’ Government Bonds?

Who Owns Different Countries’ Government Bonds? About 70% of the U.S. national debt is owned by domestic government, institutions investors and the Federal Reserve. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research

Total Negative Yielding Corporate Bonds Outstanding

Total Negative Yielding Corporate Bonds Outstanding Negative-yielding corporate debt passed $1 trillion in market value. Investors face significant risk should rates start to rise. Image: Bianco Research

Zombie Companies on the Rise

Zombie Companies on the Rise Investor demand for leveraged loans and artificially low interest rates have created zombie firms. Image: Quick Factset

MOVE vs. Treasury Term Premium

MOVE vs. Treasury Term Premium This chart shows the nice correlation between MOVE (implied volatility of U.S. Treasury markets) and the Treasury term premium. The term premium is the risk premium (or the bonus) that investors receive for the risk of owning longer-term bonds. Image: Longview Economics, Macrobond