This is not the perfect recession indicator, but when the Small Businesses Optimism Index falls below 100 or more likely below 95, then the risk of a recession remains high. 

And when the Small Businesses Optimism Index hits an all-time high, a recession may occur in the next three to four years.

That’s not the case today, there is no immediate recession on the horizon.

Image: National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB)